The global shipbuilding orderbook has grown three and a half times since 2020, while shipyard capacity has expanded by only about 30%, setting up a severe delivery squeeze over the next two years, according to the latest Shipping Market Review from Danish Ship Finance, reported by Splash247.
Order cover at the world’s yards has climbed from 1.4 years in 2020 to 3.7 years today. The orderbook now equals 19% of the existing world fleet, up from 7% six years ago.
Record orderbook, mostly in China
Earlier this week Clarksons Research put the global orderbook at a record 226.1 million compensated gross tonnes (CGT), above the previous peak of 225.5 million CGT set in September 2008. The backlog is worth roughly $700 billion, and Chinese yards hold 68% of it.
Danish Ship Finance says yards have contracted more tonnage than they delivered every year since 2021, even though output from active yards has risen 69% over the period. Production is running at 86% of capacity.
Top yards booked at 164% for 2028
- The best-performing yards are booked at 164% of their available capacity for 2028, making substantial delays “almost inevitable”, the report says.
- Five years of vessel schedules show about 78% of contracted tonnage is delivered in its scheduled year; roughly one-sixth slips into later years and about 5% is cancelled.
- Even allowing for that track record, scheduled production in 2027 and 2028 would fill 84–89% of global yard capacity before any delayed ships from earlier years are added.
- Some 10–11 million CGT of scheduled deliveries could slip each year from 2027 and 2028. If delayed 2027 ships roll into 2028, that year’s workload could reach about 60 million CGT, or 107% of available capacity.
Pressure on older tonnage
The financier warns that in the VLCC, suezmax, capesize and large gas carrier segments, scrapping every vessel older than 20 years would still not offset the ships on order, pointing to pressure on the values of older vessels as new tonnage arrives. That matters for the ship recycling yards of Chattogram, which depend on a steady flow of end-of-life tonnage.
Clarksons is tracking about 225 shipyard expansion projects worldwide, more than three-quarters of them in China. At the Maritime CEO Forum in Monaco last week, Star Bulk’s Milena Pappas said new yards were “popping up” and dormant ones being revived, and that some prospective builders had asked owners to source engines themselves. Cesare d’Amico of d’Amico Società di Navigazione and CTM chairman John Michael Radziwill both warned of looming overcapacity, with Radziwill saying any shortage of dry cargo ships would not last long.
Source: Splash247, 6 November 2026, citing Danish Ship Finance and Clarksons Research.
